We examine whether real GDP forecasts obtained from the Survey of Professional Forecasters efficiently embody information in the term structure spread. To this end, we employ revised data as well as real-time vintage data, and we also allow for the possible impact of asymmetric loss functions....

Motivated by a real-options framework in which managers learn about the unobservable characteristics of new production technologies from their recently installed assets and their stock price, we show that the corporate investment-to-stock price sensitivity rises with the time since a firm last...

We examine whether real output forecasts obtained from the Survey of Professional Forecasters efficiently embody information in the term structure spread. To this end, we employ revised data as well as real-time vintage data, and we also allow for the possible impact of asymmetric loss...