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direct measure of default risk, are employed as part of a new risk-adjustment method that significantly enhances the … using the commonly employed yield spread remains high, provided that biases associated with Eurozone sovereign default risk …
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The term structure of interest rates is crucial for the transmission of monetary policy to financial markets and the macroeconomy. Disentangling the impact of monetary policy on the components of interest rates, expected short rates and term premia, is essential to under- standing this channel....
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Why does the short-term slope of the yield curve predict recessions? We explore the economic forces underlying Treasury yields' fluctuations and highlight the roles of a tight monetary policy stance and expectations of lower inflation in predicting downturns. While the monetary policy stance is...
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The part of credit spread that is not explained by corporate credit risk forecasts future economic activity. I show … that the link with aggregate business risk and bond liquidity risk explains this fi nding. Once I project spreads on these … two risk factors, which are readily measurable with the daily frequency, in addition to corporate credit risk, the …
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