Two variables are said to be cointegrated when they move closely together over time, after proper scaling. Cointegration was taken to be the statistical expression of the notion of equilibrium in economics. But is it still possible to talk of cointegration when 'disequilibrium' economics...

It is shown that the bias of estimated parameters in autoregressive models can increase as the sample size grows. This bias is also a nonmonotonic function of the largest autoregressive root, contrary to what asymptotic approximations had indicated so far in the literature. These unusual results...

We derive formulae for the asymptotic density and distribution functions of the t-statistic for autoregressive unit roots based on M-estimators. The distribution depends upon a nuisance parameter. Consequently, new critical values for this test have to be generated for each new estimator that is...

We warn of a class of problems that occur when inverting some Characteristic Functions (CFs) which we term confluent. Confluences can arise in joint CFs during the derivation of the marginal density of some lower-dimensional combination of the components. We illustrate with a simple (yet common)...

Kernels are typically justified as a smoothing device in nonparametric analysis. We provide alternative interpretations which could lead to the use of asymmetric kernels. We thus derive the class of optimal asymmetric kernels, and analyse its main properties. We illustrate numerically its...

Vector AutoRegressions (VARs) have now become the most popular tool of Time Series analysis amongst econometricians. Unfortunately, little is known about the analytic finite-sample properties of parameter estimators for such systems. The asymptotic analysis of VARs published to date does not...

We propose a class of statistics where the direction of one of the alternatives is incorporated. It is obtained by modifying a class of multivariate tests with elliptical confidence regions, not necessarily arising from normal-based distribution theory. The resulting statistics are easy to...