In 1720, Britain and France convulsed in the South Sea and Mississippi bubbles. Manias and crashes have stalked financial markets ever since, demonstrating the profound difficulty of preventing or mitigating them. Conventional narratives depict the crises as the product of hubris, folly, and...

We document an increasingly important role of fiscal policy expectation in stock return responses to macro surprises. In a persistent low-interest-rate economy, when the Main Street suffers more than expected, investors may expect a more generous Federal Government support and drive up the...