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Clarifying the response of gold return to financial indicators : an empirical comparative analysis using ordinary least squares, robust and quantile regressions

Miyazaki, Takashi - In: Journal of risk and financial management : JRFM 12 (2019) 1/33, pp. 1-18

returns fall sharply; (2) it rises as the stock market volatility increases; (3) it also rises when general financial market …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012022330

Stationary Component in Stock Prices : A Reappraisal of Empirical Findings

Al-Zoubi, Haitham - 2016

This paper re-examines the issue of mean reversion in stock prices by incorporating the structural break effect in the long horizon regression. Before adjusting for structural break, the paper finds that previous studies understate the evidence of mean-reversion. The understatement is mainly due...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013004433

Predicting stock realized variance based on an asymmetric robust regression approach

Zhang, Yaojie; He, Mengxi; Zhao, Yuqi; Hao, Xianfeng - In: Bulletin of economic research 75 (2023) 4, pp. 1022-1047

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014435626

Time-series momentum : a Monte-Carlo approach

Cheng, Enoch; Struck, Clemens - 2019

This paper develops a Monte-Carlo backtesting procedure for risk premia strategies and employs it to study Time-Series Momentum (TSM). Relying on time-series models, empirical residual distributions and copulas we overcome two key drawbacks of conventional backtesting procedures. We create...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011990919

GARCH models for daily stock returns : impact of estimation frequency on value-at-risk and expected shortfall forecasts

Ardia, David; Hoogerheide, Lennart - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191413

Bayesian analysis of intraday stochastic volatility models of high-frequency stock returns with skew heavy-tailed errors

Nakakita, Makoto; Nakatsuma, Teruo - In: Journal of risk and financial management : JRFM 14 (2021) 4, pp. 1-29

Intraday high-frequency data of stock returns exhibit not only typical characteristics (e.g., volatility clustering and … the leverage effect) but also a cyclical pattern of return volatility that is known as intraday seasonality. In this paper …, we extend the stochastic volatility (SV) model for application with such intraday high-frequency data and develop an …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012520275

Detecting serial dependence in tail events

Diks, Cees G. H. - 2002

A test for serial independence is proposed which is related to the BDS test but focuses on tail event probabilities rather than probabilities near the center of the distribution. The motivation behind this approach is to obtain a test more suitable for detecting structure in the tails, such as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011327543

The Contribution of Intraday Jumps to Forecasting the Density of Returns

Chorro, Christophe - 2019

Recent contributions highlight the importance of intraday jumps in forecasting realized volatility at horizons up to … importance of considering the continuous/jump decomposition of volatility for the purpose of density forecasting. Specifically …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012902447

Time-Varying Relationship of News Sentiment, Implied Volatility and Stock Returns

Smales, Lee A. - 2016

volatility index (VIX). I find a significant negative contemporaneous relationship between changes in VIX and both news sentiment … between previous and current period changes in implied volatility and stock returns, while current period and lagged news … strategy whereby high (low) levels of implied volatility signal attractive opportunities to take long (short) positions in the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013007790

Intraday Stock Predictability Everywhere

Liu, Fred; Stentoft, Lars - 2023

With approximately 900 million observations we conduct, to our knowledge, the largest study ever of intraday stock return predictability using machine learning techniques finding consistent out-of-sample predictability across market, sector, and individual stock returns at various time horizons....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014349804