This article uses outlier detection procedures to investigate events that may have had a pronounced effect on tourism in Portugal. Interestingly, we confirm the evidence that the effects on tourism are lagged in time. As a result, expected business volumes are only attained later than originally...

This paper uses Monte Carlo simulations to analyze the performance of several seasonal unit root tests for monthly time series. The tests are those of Dickey, Hasza and Fuller (DHF), Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (HEGY), and Osborn, Chui, Smith and Birchenhall (OCSB). The unit root test of...

This paper analyses the calendar effects present in Automated Teller Machines (ATM) withdrawals of residents, using daily data for Portugal for the period from January 1st 2001 to December 31st 2008. The results presented may allow for a better understanding of consumer habits and for adjusting...

This paper examines continuous-time models for the S&P 100 index and its constituents. We find that the jump process of the typical stock looks significantly different than that of the index. Most importantly, the average size of a jumps in the returns of the typical stock is positive, while it...

Out-of-sample performance of continuous time models for equity returns is crucial in practical applications such as computing risk measures like value at risk, determine optimal portfolios or pricing derivatives. For all these applications investors need to model the return distribution of an...