Early warning systems (EWS) are widely used for assessing countries' vulnerability to fiscal distress. Most EWS employ a specific set of only fiscal leading indicators predetermined by the researchers, which casts doubt on their robustness. We revisit this issue by using the Extreme Bound...

The development over time of market integration between Chinese provinces is analyzed by estimating threshold vector error correction models for rolling windows during 1998-2003. Transaction costs clearly decrease during this period characterized by liberalization of external trade and domestic...