The introduction of a common monetary policy in eleven European countries increased the need for leading indicators for that area. A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference...

In this paper we used a data set constructed for a companion paper (Fritsche/Stephan, 2000) where we explored the leading indicator properties of different time series for the German business cycle. Now we test for the ability of different indicator series to forecast recessions by using a...

The paper seeks to add to the existing literature on aggregate and private savings by focusing on transition economies. We use panel data over the period 1989-1998 and estimate a fixed-effects model. In Central Eastern European Countries, aggregate and private savings are driven by almost the...

Using a gravity-type explanation of international trade flows at the industry level, it is shown that the pattern of comparative advantage in terms of sectoral export/import ratios in bilateral trade can be explained by relative income and relative per capita income. Total income of a country is...

This paper explores determinants of church attendance and the formation of 'religious human capital' in Germany within a Becker-style allocation-of-time framework. The analysis is based on data derived from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). Taking advantage of the longitudinal structure...

This paper investigates whether and how regional social contexts influence fertility decisions of women living in western Germany during the 1980s and 1990s. It is argued that regional opportunity structures as well as local patterns of social interaction and culture may translate into...

Diese Studie betrachtet die im deutschen sozioökonomischen Panel (GSOEP) erfassten gewichteten monatlichen Bruttoverdienste vollzeitbeschäftigter Erwerbstätiger in der Periode 1984 bis 1999. Dabei werden einige Aspekte der Einkommensverteilung aufgedeckt, die von der bislang allgemein...

To begin with, we sketch a general multilevel model of regional social contexts and individual family formation behavior, where particular attention is paid to the determinants of the actor's situation. Then a set of bridge hypotheses is proposed, on which the empirical investigation of the...

The paper uses panel data on OECD countries to assess four theories about the forces that generate social spending. The four theories are: Aid: the Welfare State is about helping the poor. Insure: the Welfare State insures the consumption of middle-class voters. Transfer: the Welfare State...

This study deals with youth unemployment trends in Europe since the mid of the 80ths in general and regards individual risk factors for Germany and the United Kingdom in particular in the mid of the 90ths. The study for the two selected countries shows that the individual risk of (long-term)...