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Firms' optimism and pessimism
Bachmann, Ruediger; Elstner, Steffen - 2013
West German manufacturing subset of the IFO Business Climate Survey to infer quarterly production changes at the firm level … and combine them with production expectations over a quarterly horizon in the same survey to construct series of … and at most 34 percent of firms systematically over- or underpredict their one-quarter-ahead upcoming production. In a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009724017
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Firms' Optimism and Pessimism
Bachmann, Rudi - 2014
West German manufacturing subset of the IFO Business Climate Survey to infer quarterly production changes at the firm level … and combine them with production expectations over a quarterly horizon in the same survey to construct series of … and at most 34 percent of firms systematically over- or underpredict their one-quarter-ahead upcoming production. In a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013064073
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Firms' Optimism and Pessimism
Bachmann, Ruediger; Elstner, Steffen - 2021
West German manufacturing subset of the IFO Business Climate Survey to infer quarterly production changes at the firm level … and combine them with production expectations over a quarterly horizon in the same survey to construct series of … and at most 34 percent of firms systematically over- or underpredict their one-quarter-ahead upcoming production. In a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315803
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Firms' Optimism and Pessimism
Bachmann, Ruediger - 2013
West German manufacturing subset of the IFO Business Climate Survey to infer quarterly production changes at the firm level … and combine them with production expectations over a quarterly horizon in the same survey to construct series of … and at most 34 percent of firms systematically over- or underpredict their one-quarter-ahead upcoming production. In a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459673
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Learning capitalism the hard way : evidence from German reunification
Triebs, Thomas P.; Tumlinson, Justin - 2016
We develop a model of firm learning in volatile markets with noisy signals and test its predictions using historical German data. Firms' forecasts improve with age. We exploit German Reunification as a natural experiment where firms in the East are treated with ignorance about the distribution...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011580632
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Firm expectations and economic activity
Enders, Zeno; Hünnekes, Franziska; Müller, Gernot J. - In: Journal of the European Economic Association : JEEA 20 (2022) 6, pp. 2396-2439
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013542896
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Der Einfluss von Quantifizierungsmethoden auf das Testen von Erwartungsbildungsmodellen
Lankes, Fidelis - 1991
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000821604
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Rational forecasts or social opinion dynamics? : Identification of interaction effects in a business climate survey
Lux, Thomas (contributor) - 2008
This paper develops a methodology for estimating the parameters of dynamic opinion or expectation formation processes with social interactions. We study a simple stochastic framework of a collective process of opinion formation by a group of agents who face a binary decision problem. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003715033
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The role of business expectations for new product introductions : a panel analysis for the German food industry
Hartl, Jochen; Herrmann, Roland - 2005
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003278408
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Rational forecasts or social opinion dynamics? : identification of interaction effects in a business climate survey
Lux, Thomas - In: Journal of economic behavior & organization : JEBO 72 (2009) 2, pp. 638-655
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003907601