The paper discusses problems associated with communicating uncertainty by means of ‘fan charts’, used in many central banks for presenting density forecasts of inflation and other macroeconomic variables. Limitations of fan charts in the case of high macroeconomic uncertainty are shown....

In this paper we present the NBP Survey of Professional Forecasters introduced in 2011 by the National Bank of Poland. It is a new survey that allows analysis of macroeconomic forecasts of professional economists, including their probabilistic forecasts of CPI inflation, GDP growth and the NBP...

We assess similiarity of the Polish central bank's forecasts published in Inflation Reports and economic experts' forecasts (from NBP Survey of Professional Forecasts), an important issue in monetary policy. Contrary to other studies which use point forecast, we are interested in comparing whole...