We introduce equilibrium indeterminacy into a two-country incomplete asset model with imperfect competition and analyze whether self-fulfilling, belief-driven fluctuations (i.e., sunspot shocks) can help resolve the major puzzles of international business cycles. We find that a combination of...

Does theory aid inflation forecasting? To date, the evidence suggests that there is no systematic advantage of theory-based models of inflation dynamics over their astructural counterparts. This study reconsiders the issue by developing a “semi-structural” forecasting procedure comprised of...

This paper assesses the feasibility of forming a common currency in Latin America. First, we examine the cointegration and Granger causality of real effective exchange rates and find evidence supporting a monetary union comprised of Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and...

This paper considers various AK models to investigate inference about the relative price between consumption and investment using NIPA data. We find, that depending on the model used, we can legitimately generate different time series for this price. If we successfully construct a falling price...

This paper re-considers the importance of trade openness for equilibrium determinacy when monetary policy is characterized by interest-rate rules. We develop a two-country, sticky-price model where money enters the utility function in a non-separable manner. Forward- and current-looking policy...