Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output declined by 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in February after a decline of 0.2 per cent in the three months ending in January 2013. The estimates suggest that the economy continued to flat-line in the first two months of this year and...

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in June after 0.9 per cent in the three months ending in May. Further acceleration in GDP growth would start to reverse the rise in unemployment seen over the recession. Unfortunately, the UK economy...

Recent time series evidence favouring a supply-side interpretation of long-run unemployment in the UK is based on the finding of cointegration between unemployment and wage pressure variables. We show that this is necessary but not sufficient. The key assumptions in recent work, that a single...

NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH ESTIMATES OF MONTHLY GDP ECONOMIC GROWTH MODERATES Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in August after 1.3 per cent in the three months ending in July. The pace of economic growth may...