I identify a forward-looking monetary policy function in a structural VAR model by using forecasts of macroeconomic variables, in addition to the realized variables used in a standard VAR. Both impulse responses and variance decompositions of the monetary policy variable of this...

The variance of real interest rate differentials (rids) is decomposed between ex post deviations from relative purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) for a set of emerging markets from 1995M5 to 2004M3. The results point out to

In this paper we propose Granger (non-)causality tests based on a VAR model allowing for time-varying coefficients. The functional form of the time-varying coefficients is a Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive (LSTAR) model using time as the transition variable. The model allows for...

Die Analyse der Wirkung von Verkaufsförderungsmaßnahmen auf den Absatz oder Erlös von Konsumgütern gehört zu den mit am meisten erforschten Problemkomplexen in der quantitativen Marketingforschung. Allerdings untersuchen die Mehrzahl der Arbeiten lediglich die kurzfristigen Wirkungen von...

This paper studies the effects of discretionary fiscal policy shocks under different exchange rate regimes within a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. We first suggest that by estimating the effects of fiscal policy shocks in two structurally similar small open economies that have...

This paper develops a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility to analyze whether international spillovers of US monetary policy have changed over time. The proposed model allows assessing whether coefficients evolve gradually over time or...

In a recent paper, Mertens and Ravn (2010) study the effects of anticipated fiscal policy shocks in a structural vector autoregressive model. The authors maintain that (i) the lag polynomial associated with news shocks is a cyclotomic polynomial and (ii) the matrix B(L) which transforms a...

The authors re-examine the return-volatility relationship and its dynamics under a new vector autoregression (VAR) identification framework. By analyzing two model-free impliedvolatility indices - the well-established VIX (in the United States) and the recently published VKOSPI (in Korea) - and...

We analyze the predictive power of seven leading indicators for economic activity inthe Euro Area developed by different banks, institutions and research centers. Ourcomparison is conducted in a bivariate vector autoregressive framework. Indicators arecompared by means of an in-sample and an...

Sharp increases in the price of oil are generally seen as a major contributor to business cycle asymmetries. Moreover, the very recent highs registered in the world oil market are causing concern about possible slowdowns in the economic performance of the most developed countries. While several...