This paper takes a critical look at available proxies of uncertainty. Two questions are adressed: (i) How do we evaluate proxies given that subjective uncertainty is inherently unobservable? (ii) Is there such a thing as a general macroeconomic uncertainty? Using correlations, some narrative...

We show that empirical results concerning the behavior of floating exchange rates differ between otherwise identical cointegrated and non-cointegrated VAR models. In particular, virtually all ten-year movements in nominal exchange rates are due to fundamental supply and demand shocks when long...

This paper investigates the power properties of the Sargan test in the presence of measurement errors in dynamic panel data models. The general conclusion from the Monte Carlo simulations is that the Sargan test, in many cases, leads the econometrician to accept misspecified models with...

Empirical evidence on the relationship between technology shocks and e.g. hours worked hinges crucially on the identification of the unobservable technological progress. In this paper, we study different measures of technology in order to find out (i) to what extent they capture the same...

The temporal interdependence between saving and output has been in focus in a number of recent empirical studies. Results from these studies have compelled some authors to question the traditional notion of a causal chain where saving leads growth through capital accumulation. This paper...

The transmission of monetary policy to the economy is generally thought to have long and variable lags. In this paper we quantitatively review the modern literature on monetary transmission to provide stylized facts on the average lag length and the sources of variability. We collect 67...

This paper is a comprehensive analysis of Hungary's potential output. Since the concept of potential output is not unique, we present various interpretations of potential GDP, along with a large set of techniques for estimating it. Various estimates are presented and robustness analyses are...

This paper presents a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model with particular attention to the Hungarian labour market. The identification of structural shocks is based on sign restrictions. We identify four structural shocks: a labour supply, an aggregate supply, an aggregate demand and a...

A standard approach in measuring the effect of monetary policy on output and prices is to estimate a VAR model, characterise somehow the monetary policy shock and then plot impulse responses. In this paper I attempt to do this exercise with Hungarian data. I compare two identification...

This paper assesses the effect of monetary policy on major components of aggregate demand. We use three different macromodels, all estimated on Hungarian data of the past 10 years. All three models indicated that after an unexpected monetary policy tightening investments decrease quickly. The...