The run-up in oil prices since 2004 coincided with growing investment in commodity markets and increased price comovement among different commodities. We assess whether speculation in the oil market played a role in driving this salient empirical pattern. We identify oil shocks from a large...

The paper presents and estimates a model of the prices of oil and other storable commodities, a model that can be characterized as reflecting the carry trade. It focuses on speculative factors, here defined as the trade-off between interest rates on the one hand and market participants'...

Abstract: The coincident rise in crude oil prices and increased numbers of financial participants in the crude oil futures market from 2000-2008 has led to allegations that "speculators" drive crude oil prices. As crude oil futures peaked at $147/bbl in July 2008, the role of speculators came...

"Je höher man steigt, umso tiefer der Fall" - auf wohl kein Phänomen trifft dieser Ausspruch so gut zu wie auf Finanzkrisen. Steigen die Preise für ein Spekulationsobjekt in immer gröe︢re Höhen und erhitzt sich der Markt immer mehr, ist die Folge meist ein abrupter Fall: Die Blase platzt!...

The paper presents and estimates a model of the prices of oil and other storable commodities, a model that can be characterized as reflecting the carry trade. It focuses on speculative factors, here defined as the trade-off between interest rates on the one hand and market participants'...

This paper examines whether speculation in the global oil market contributes to herd behavior in the stock markets of net exporting nations. Using firm level data from the Gulf Arab stock markets, we show that investors display herd behavior during periods of high volatility while anti-herding...

Over the 1990–2010 time period, a dynamic interaction between spot and futures returns in five commodity markets (copper, cotton, oil, silver, and soybeans) is empirically validated. An error correction relationship for the cash returns and a non-linear parameterization of the corresponding...

How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect...