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We propose using the Realized GARCH model to estimate the daily price volatility in the EPEX power markets. The model … specification extracts the volatility-related information from realized measures, which substantially improves the in-sample fit of … that intra-day range is an effective volatility indicator in the power market as the benefit of including intra-day range …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013076010
characterized by volatility clustering and asymmetry. Also revealed as a stylized fact is Long memory or long range dependence in … market volatility, with significant impact on pricing and forecasting of market volatility. The implication is that models … that accomodate long memory hold the promise of improved long-run volatility forecast as well as accurate pricing of long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003636008
-GARCH models to capture time varying volatility and nonlinearity in petrol prices. ANN augmented versions of LSTAR-LST-GARCH models … models, except for the MLP-FIGARCH and MLP-FIAPGARCH models. iv. Volatility clustering, asymmetry and nonlinearity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013103072
We address some issues that arise with the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model. We prove that the DCC large system estimator (DCC estimator) can be inconsistent, and that the traditional interpretation of the DCC correlation parameters can lead to misleading conclusions. We then suggest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013134164
It is well-known that the estimated GARCH dynamics exhibit common patterns. Starting from this fact we extend the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model by allowing for a clustering structure of the univariate GARCH parameters. The model can be estimated in two steps, the first devoted to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125314
This paper formulates dynamic density functions, based upon skewed-t and similar representations, to model and forecast electricity price spreads between different hours of the day. This supports an optimal day ahead storage and discharge schedule, and thereby facilitates a bidding strategy for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014107616
volatility index was created to capture the investor expectations about the crypto-currency ecosystem. VCRIX is built based on … CRIX and offers a forecast for the mean annualized volatility of the next 30 days, re-estimated daily. The model was back …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012846988
The consistent ranking of multivariate volatility models by means of statistical loss function is a challenging … research field, because it concerns the quality of the proxy chosen to replace the unobserved volatility, the set of competing … realized covariance (RCOV), the proxy that generally provides a consistent estimate of the unobserved volatility. The aim of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010860339
correlation ; Dynamic conditional correlation ; Return comovement ; Variable correlation GARCH model ; Volatility model evaluation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003411196
World power and gas markets have a natural relationship with global tradable carbon permits markets, including the U.S. Clean Air Act Amendments and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, the latter officially launched in January 2005. Electric utilities operate their power plants based in part on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003394343