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On average, "young" people underestimate whereas "old" people overestimate their chances to survive into the future. We adopt a Bayesian learning model of ambiguous survival beliefs which replicates these patterns. The model is embedded within a non-expected utility model of life-cycle...
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is compared with hyperbolic discounting within a standard life-cycle setting of consumption and savings. We show …
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On average, "young" people underestimate whereas "old" people overestimate their chances to survive into the future. We adopt a Bayesian learning model of ambiguous survival beliefs which replicates these patterns. The model is embedded within a non-expected utility model of life-cycle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010419819
life-cycle consumption and savings. According to numerous studies on subjective survival beliefs, young people also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011629177
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According to economic theory, subjective longevity expectations should shape individual decision making regarding … consumption and savings. A common way of eliciting longevity expectations is to ask for the subjective probability of survival to …-of-sample predictions. We also show that the elicited survival distributions are decent predictors of actual mortality and propose a new …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012978763