The main goal of this research is to improve the degree of accuracy for inflation rate forecasts in Romania. The inflation was forecasted using a vectorial-autoregressive model. According to Granger test for causality, the relationship between the two variables is reciprocal. The inflation rate...

The International Conference GLOBALIZATION Economic, Social and Moral Implications was organized by Research Association for Interdisciplinary Studies, “Athenaeum” University of Bucharest, Institute for Economic Forecasting Romanian Academy, Scientia Moralitas Research Institute and The...

The objective of this research is to analyze the differences between Romania and the European Union regarding the convergence process. In this paper we were interested in determining the forecasting horizon for which Romania, in certain conditions, might have a value of GDP per capita that is...

This is an original scientific paper that proposes the introduction in literature of two new accuracy indicators for assessing the global accuracy of the forecast intervals. Taking into account that there are not specific indicators for prediction intervals, point forecasts being associated to...

Bayesian econometrics knew a considerable increase in popularity in the last years, joining the interests of various groups of researchers in economic sciences and additional ones as specialists in econometrics, commerce, industry, marketing, finance, micro-economy, macro-economy and other...

This is an original scientific paper that proposes the introduction in literature of two new accuracy indicators for assessing the global accuracy of the forecast intervals. Taking into account that there are not specific indicators for prediction intervals, point forecasts being associated to...

The aim of this research is to make predictions for macroeconomic variables like inflation rate, unemployment rate and exchange rate for Romania and Poland using BVAR models. The one-step-ahead forecasts cover the horizon 2011-2013. Direct forecasts were developed using three types of priors for...

The main aim of this study is to estimate an econometric model for describing the evolution of actives/GDP in 18 European countries in 2010. This variable is a proxy for financial stability and it depends on market share of the first 5 banks in each countries and the inflation rate. Moreover,...

The main objective of this study is to measure the degree of convergence in European Union- 28 (EU-28) in the period from 1995 to 2012. The catch-up rates diminished for many countries in the period from 2008 to 2012, because of the negative effect of economic crisis, when the disparities among...

The aim of this research is to determine the monthly natural rate of unemployment during the third quarter of 2013 in Romania. The Phillips curve approach is not valid for the Romanian economy, but Kalman filter is a suitable approach for computing the natural rate of unemployment. We make the...