The main objective of this research is to construct forecast intervals for inflation and unemployment rate in Romania. Two types of techniques were employed: bootstrap technique (tpercentile method) and historical error technique (root mean square error method- RMSE). The forecast intervals...

The main aim of this article is to model the quarterly real money demand in Romania and to make short-run forecasts for 2014:Q1-2015:Q1. A vector-autoregressive model (VAR(1)) was built for stationary data series of real money demand, real GDP and spread between active and pasive interest rate...

The main aim of this research is to construct different forecasts for the weight of fiscal revenues in the GDP for Romania on short horizon (2011-2013) by using different types of econometric models. Using annual data from 1995, according to Granger causality test, there is a unidirectional...

There are many types of econometric models used in predicting the inflation rate, but in this study we used a Bayesian shrinkage combination approach. This methodology is used in order to improve the predictions accuracy by including information that is not captured by the econometric models....

The necessity of improving the forecasts accuracy grew in the context of actual economic crisis, but few researchers were interested till now in finding out some empirical strategies to improve their predictions. In this article, for the inflation rate forecasts on the horizon 2010-2012, we...

The necessity of improving the forecasts accuracy grew in the context of actual economic crisis, but few researchers were interested till now in finding out some empirical strategies to improve their predictions. In this article, for the inflation rate forecasts on the horizon 2010-2012, we...

This research has two main objectives: the evaluation of forecast performance based on the Dobrescu macromodel for the Romanian economy on the horizon 1997-2012 and the proposal of some empirical strategies to improve the prediction accuracy. Seven macroeconomic indicators were selected and the...

The main objective of this study is to assess the usefulness and rationality of the inflation and unemployment rate forecasts made for Romanian by three experts in forecasting: F1, F2 and F3. All the unemployment rate forecasts over the horizon 2001-2013 provided by all experts do not provide...

In this study a panel data analysis was made for financial stability indicators in 7 European Union countries over 2006-2011 (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Poland, Slovenia, Hungary, Romania, Austria, France, Italy, Greece and England. The loam quality is explained by the coverage of...

The aggregates, like GDP, can be forecasted using two different strategies, the criterion of predictions’ accuracy being used to select the best strategy. The aim of this paper is to find out what is the best strategy to be used in predicting GDP in Romania. In this study, for data series of...