The simple econometric models for the exchange rate, according to recent researches, generates the forecasts with the highest degree of accuracy. This type of models (Simultaneous Equations Model, MA(1) Procedure, Model with lagged variables) is used to describe the evolution of the average...

In this study some alternative forecasts for the unemployment rate of USA made by four institutions (International Monetary Fund (IMF), Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Blue Chips (BC)) are evaluated regarding the accuracy and...

In this paper article, two strategies based on the econometric approach are proposed in order to improve the forecast accuracy of GDP index in Romania. First, the index is predicted starting from an econometric model that reflects the relationship between the GDP index and the GDP deflator....

Econometric modeling of the exchange rate saw successive progresses, the forecasts based on the ‘70s models having a rather good accuracy, as recent researches showed. In order to explain the monthly evolution of RON/USA exchange rate during 2007-June 2011, I used three econometric models: a...

The aggregation of the variables that compose an indicator, as GDP, which should be forecasted, is not mentioned explicitly in literature as a source of forecasts uncertainty. In this study based on data on U.S. GDP and its components in 1995-2010, we found that GDP one-step-ahead forecasts made...

Based on data of inflation forecasts provided quarterly by the National Bank of Romania, forecast intervals were built using the method of historical forecast errors. Forecast intervals were built considering that the forecast error series is normally distributed of zero mean and standard...

The aggregation of the variables that compose an indicator, as GDP, which should be forecasted, is not mentioned explicitly in literature as a source of forecasts uncertainty. In this study based on data on U.S. GDP and its components in 1995-2010, we found that GDP one-step-ahead forecasts made...

The aggregation of the variables that compose an indicator, as GDP, which should beforecasted, is not mentioned explicitly in literature as a source of forecasts uncertainty. In thisarticle we demonstrate that variables aggregation is an important source of uncertainty inforecasting and we...

In this paper I built forecasts intervals for the inflation rate in Romania, using the quarterly predicted values provided by the National Bank of Romania for 2007-2010. First, I used the historical errors method, which is the most used method, especially by the central banks. Forecast intervals...

In this article, the accuracy of forecasts for inflation rate, unemployment, exchange rate and GDP index provided by Institute of Economic Forecasting (IEF) and National Commission of Prognosis (NCP) was assessed for the forecasting horizon 2004-2011. The hypothesis that combined forecasts is a...