This paper compares the forecasting performance of three different econometric models for the Eurozone and the USA: a vector auto regression (VAR), a Bayesian vector auto regression (BVAR), and a structural vector error correction model (SVEC). The forecast evaluation is based on 19 vintages of...

There is evidence that a budget consolidation strategy can work with only a small and short lived negative impact on growth. However, this time consolidation is taking place in the aftermath of a deep crisis which had lead to increased levels of uncertainty. In addition the financial sector, as...

Socio-economic transformations associated with the shift to post-industrial societies have not only created new opportunities and prosperity, but have also given rise to the emergence of new social risks occurring at different stages of life. This paper examines the situation of children, who...

In this paper we analyse the role of ethnic networks in the location decision of migrants to the EU 15 at the regional level. Using a random parameters logit specification we find a substantially positive effect of ethnic networks on the location decision of migrants. The effect is, however,...

The EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) that covers emitters from industry and the energy sector representing 40 percent of the EU's total greenhouse gas emissions is the biggest implementation worldwide of a cap-and-trade scheme. The EU ETS has been the core instrument of European climate...

The relationship between government size and growth has received an enormous attention in the economics literature, and the recent financial crisis has forced this topic back on the agenda. A highly controversial debate in this respect is whether large governments are harmful for growth....

The deepening of the debt crisis in the euro area is due to three systemic causes which national governments are not able to overcome on their own. First, being members of a monetary union euro states cannot reverse the rise in public debt (caused by the financial crisis 2008) through...

The environmental effectiveness of an emission trading system depends on the one hand on the stringency of the cap and on the other hand on the scheme's ability to provide stable regulatory conditions and incentives for investment in emission saving technologies. However, in case of highly...

After the climate conferences in Copenhagen and Cancun, it is likely that the EU remains more ambitious regarding greenhouse gas reduction targets than other countries. The possible problem of carbon leakage and instruments to tackle it therefore remains an important issue in the European...