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Diagnosing foehn winds from weather station data downwind of topographic obstacles requires distinguishing them from other downslope winds, particularly nocturnal ones driven by radiative cooling. We present an automatic classification scheme to obtain reproducible results that include...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010397161
Diagnosing foehn winds from weather station data downwind of topographic obstacles requires distinguishing them from other downslope winds, particularly nocturnal ones driven by radiative cooling. We present an automatic classification scheme to obtain reproducible results that include...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010839571
Raw ensemble forecasts display large errors in predicting precipitation amounts and its forecast uncertainty, especially in mountainous regions where local e.ects are often not captured. Therefore, statistical post-processing is typically applied to obtain automatically corrected weather...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011622775
Statistical post-processing of ensemble predictions is usually adjusted to a particular lead time so that several models must be fitted to forecast multiple lead times. To increase the coherence between lead times, we propose to use standardized anomalies instead of direct observations and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011622778
Airport operations are sensitive to visibility conditions. Low-visibility events may lead to capacity reduction, delays and economic losses. Different levels of low-visibility procedures (lvp) are enacted to ensure aviation safety. A nowcast of the probabilities for each of the lvp categories...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011869141
Low-visibility conditions at airports can lead to capacity reductions and therefore to delays or cancelations of arriving and departing flights. Accurate visibility forecasts are required to keep the airport capacity as high as possible. We generate probabilistic nowcasts of low-visibility...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011869142
A probabilistic forecasting method to predict thunderstorms in the European Eastern Alps is developed. A statistical model links lightning occurrence from the ground-based ALDIS detection network to a large set of direct and derived variables from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) system. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011930733
Non-homogeneous regression models are widely used to statistically post-process numerical ensemble weather prediction models. Such regression models are capable of forecasting full probability distributions and correct for ensemble errors in the mean and variance. To estimate the corresponding...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011930735
Accurate and high-resolution snowfall and fresh snow forecasts are important for a range of economic sectors as well as for the safety of people and infrastructure, especially in mountainous regions. In this article a new hybrid statistical postprocessing method is proposed, which combines...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011930742
Non-homogeneous post-processing is often used to improve the predictive performance of probabilistic ensemble forecasts. A common quantity to develop, test, and demonstrate new methods is the near-surface air temperature frequently assumed to follow a Gaussian response distribution. However,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011930743