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Debt in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is at its highest level in half a century. In about nine out of 10 EMDEs, debt is higher now than it was in 2010 and, in half of the EMDEs, debt is more than 30 percentage points of gross domestic product higher. Historically, elevated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012655299
The literature on the benefits and costs of financial globalization for developing countries has exploded in recent years, but along many disparate channels with a variety of apparently conflicting results. We attempt to provide a unified conceptual framework for organizing this vast and growing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012760688
This paper offers empirical evidence that real exchange rate volatility can have a significant impact on long-term rate of productivity growth, but the effect depends critically on a country%u2019s level of financial development. For countries with relatively low levels of financial development,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012761684
We show that the when one takes into account the global equilibrium ramifications of an unwinding of the US current account deficit, currently estimated at 5.4% of GDP, the potential collapse of the dollar becomes considerably larger--more than 50% larger--than our previous estimates (Obstfeld...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012762556
The historical frequency of banking crises is quite similar in high- and middle-to-low-income countries, with quantitative and qualitative parallels in both the run-ups and the aftermath. We establish these regularities using a unique dataset spanning from Denmark's financial panic during the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012765571
This paper examines annual commodity price data from England and Holland over a span of seven centuries. Our data set incorporates transactions prices on 8 commodities: barley, butter, cheese, eggs, oats, peas, silver and wheat as well as pound/shilling nominal exchange rates going back, in some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012768074
Are structural models getting closer to being able to forecast exchange rates at short horizons? Here we argue that misinterpretation of some new out-of-sample tests for nested models, over-reliance on asymptotic test statistics, and failure to sufficiently check robustness to alternative time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012771554
There is a large and growing empirical literature that tests forthe existence of asset-price bubbles or quot;sunspotquot; equilibria -- equilibria unrelated to market fundamentals. Our view is that even tests for non-stationary asset-price bubbles should not be interpreted as such. In the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774699
The intertemporal approach to the current account is often regarded as theoretically elegant but of limited empirical significance. This paper derives highly tractable current account and investment specifications that we estimate without resorting to calibration or simulation methods. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012777103
This paper employs a dynamic bargaining-theoretic framework to analyze multilateral sovereign debt rescheduling negotiations. The analysis illustrates how various factors, such as the debtor`s gains from trade and the level of world interest rates, affect the relative bargaining power of various...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012781321