Recently there has been much interest in studying monetary policy under model uncertainty. We develop methods to analyze different sources of uncertainty in one coherent structure useful for policy decisions. We show how to estimate the size of the uncertainty based on time series data, and...

Data in which each observation is a curve occur in many applied problems. This paperexplores prediction in time series in which the data is generated by a curve-valuedautoregression process. It develops a novel technique, the predictive factor decomposition, forestimation of the autoregression...