An experiment is reported which compares directional forecasting performance of experts, novices and simple statistical models over three time horizons on a task involving probabilistic forecasts of exchange rate movements. Probability-judgement accuracy analyses illustrated no clear overall...

‘Quasirationality’ (i.e., the combination of intuitive and analytic thought) is increasingly considered to be widespread and beneficial in management. This paper provides an overview of this concept as it is defined by Cognitive Continuum Theory (Hammond, 1996, 2000), and highlights the...