This paper studies the effects on international trade from the annual tariff uncertainty about China's Most Favored Nation (MFN) status renewal in the United States prior to joining the World Trade Organization. The paper makes four main findings. First, in monthly data trade increases...

This paper studies the aggregate effects of supply chain disruptions in the post-pandemic period in a heterogeneous-firm, general equilibrium model with input-output linkages and a rich set of supply chain frictions: uncertain shipping delays, fixed order costs, and storage costs. Firms...

Most aggregate theories of financial frictions model credit available at a cost of financing equal to the savings rate but rationed. However, using a comprehensive firm-level credit registry, we document both high levels and high dispersion in ex post credit spreads to Brazilian firms. We...

Standard dynamic models of structural transformation, without knife-edge and counterfactual parameter values, preclude balanced growth path (BGP) analysis. This paper develops a dynamic equilibrium concept for a more general class of models - an alternative to a BGP, which we coin a Stable...

Structural change involves a broad set of trends: (i) sectoral reallocations, (ii) rich movements of productive activities between home and market, and (iii) an increase in the scale of productive units. After extending these facts, we develop a model to explain them within a unified framework....