We present a new procedure for detecting multiple additive outliers in GARCH(1,1) models at unknown dates. The outlier candidates are the observations with the largest standardized residual. First, a likelihood-ratio based test determines the presence and timing of an outlier. Next, a second...

Big Data offer potential benefits for statistical modelling, but confront problems like an excess of false positives, mistaking correlations for causes, ignoring sampling biases, and selecting by inappropriate methods.  We consider the many important requirements when searching for a data-based...

We consider selecting an econometric model when there is uncertainty over both the choice of variables and the occurrence and timing of multiple location shifts.  The theory of general-to-simple (Gets) selection is outlined and its efficacy demonstrated in a new set of simulation experiments...

We evaluate automatically selecting the relevant variables in an econometric model from a large candidate set.  General-to-specific selection is outlined for a constant model in orthogonal variables, where only one decision is required to select, irrespective of the number of regressors (N T)...

Using an extension of general-to-specific modelling, based on the recent developments of impulse-indicator saturation (IIS), we consider selecting significant step indicators from a saturating set to capture location shifts.  The approximate non-centrality of the test is derived for a variety...

Data from R.A. Fisher, 1936, on the characteristics of 50 iris flowers of three species: iris setosa, iris versicolor and iris virginica. Four characteristics are recorded for each flower: sepal length, sepal width, petal width, and petal length.

Dow Jones Industrial Average, daily, 4Jan1982-31Dec1999. Recorded as level, log, and return.

The distribution of a functional of two correlated vector-Brownian motions is approximated by a Gamma distribution. This functional represents the limiting distribution for cointegration tests with stationary exogenous regressors, but also for cointegration tests based on a non-Gaussian...