A forward intensity model for the prediction of corporate defaults over different future periods is proposed. Maximum pseudo-likelihood analysis is then conducted on a large sample of the US industrial and financial firms spanning the period 1991–2011 on a monthly basis. Several commonly used...

A forward intensity model for the prediction of corporate defaults over different future periods is proposed. Maximum pseudo-likelihood analysis is then conducted on a large sample of the US industrial and financial firms spanning the period 1991-2011 on a monthly basis. Several commonly used...

In this paper, we estimate the de facto RMB exchange rate regime, currency basket, floating band and foreign exchange market pressure before and after the reform of the Chinese exchange rate regime in 2005. The stylized facts indicate that the value of RMB became more stable; the weight of US...

This paper reviews the evolution of China''s real effective exchange rate between 1980 and 2002, and uses a structural vector autoregression model to study the relative importance of different types of macroeconomic shocks for fluctuations in the real exchange rate. The structural decomposition...