An analysis of employment and income trends suggests that the economic impact of the September 11 attack on New York City was somewhat less severe than originally thought. The attack created sizable job and income losses, but the city's current downturn appears to stem largely from other,...

This paper investigates the forecasting power of consumer sentiment for household expenditure. We compare the predictive power of two measures of consumer attitudes, and then further compare each survey's expectations component with one another, and with the broader sentiment measures. The...

In New York City, tourism has made impressive gains in recent years, particularly in the foreign visitor segment. While not large enough to propel the city's economy, this long-term growth industry is critical to maintaining the local export base and providing jobs to low-skilled workers.

[...]This study is the first formal investigation ofconsumer attitudes that compares the forecasting power ofthe University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentimentand the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index.We begin with a background analysis of structural differencesbetween the...

We study Puerto Rico's experience after the severe hurricane season of 2017 to better understand how extreme weather disasters affect bank stability and their ability to lend. Despite the devastation wrought by two category 5 hurricanes in a single month, we find relatively modest and transitory...