In this paper we explore a new approach to understanding the evolution of the unemployment rate in Australia. Specifically, we use gross worker flows data to explore the consequences of assuming that there is no unique equilibrium rate of unemployment but rather a continuum of stochastic...

In this paper, we set out a model of labour productivity which distinguishes between shocks which change productivity permanently and shocks which have transient affects on productivity. We show that this model is a type of unobserved components model –a random walk with drift plus noise...

It is important to understand how labour markets in different regions are affected by 'common’ or 'national' shocks including national macroeconomic, monetary and fiscal policies. This paper applies a new econometric approach - involving an unobserved components model - to identify the...

In this paper we deal with five related questions. What are the 'stylised facts'about the behaviour of flows into and out of unemployment and the Unemployment Rate in Australia, especially in recessions? Why does the number of persons flowing out of Unemployment (including the number flowing...

In this paper we develop a framework which is appropriate for the systematic investigation of the relationship between net (and gross) flows between different labour market states and movements in the unemployment rate. We use that framework to investigate the behaviour of net flows of persons...