A well-documented empirical result is that market expectations extracted from futures contracts on the federal funds rate are among the best predictors for the future course of monetary policy. We show how this information can be exploited to produce accurate forecasts of bond excess returns and...

We develop a general framework for analyzing the usefulness of imposing parameter restrictions on a forecasting model. We propose a measure of the usefulness of the restrictions that depends on the forecaster's loss function and that could be time varying. We show how to conduct inference about...

We develop a general framework for analyzing the usefulness of imposing parameter restrictions on a forecasting model. We propose a measure of the usefulness of the restrictions that depends on the forecaster's loss function and that could be time varying. We show how to conduct inference about...

This chapter reviews the literature on the econometric relationship between DSGE and VAR models from the point of view of estimation and model validation. The mapping between DSGE and VAR models is broken down into three stages: 1) from DSGE to state-space model; 2) from state-space model to VAR...

The goal of this paper is to develop formal tests to evaluate the relative in-sample performance of two competing, misspeciÂ…ed non-nested models in the presence of possible data instability. Compared to previous approaches to model selection, which are based on measures of global...

The goal of this paper is to develop formal techniques for analyzing the relative in-sample performance of two competing, misspeci?ed models in the presence of possible data instability. The central idea of our methodology is to propose a measure of the models? local relative performance: the...

This comprehensive Handbook presents the current state of art in the theory and methodology of macroeconomic data analysis. It is intended as a reference for graduate students and researchers interested in exploring new methodologies, but can also be employed as a graduate text. The Handbook...

We consider a method for producing multivariate density forecasts that satisfy moment restrictions implied by economic theory, such as Euler conditions. The method starts from a base forecast that might not satisfy the theoretical restrictions and forces it to satisfy the moment conditions using...