This article investigates the long-run relationship between prices and wage-adjusted productivity as well as between real wages and average labor productivity at the industry level for a panel of 459 U.S. manufacturing industries over the period 1956–1996. Panel cointegration test results...

In this paper, we show that the data have difficulty distinguishing a stock price decomposition in which expectations of future real dividend growth is a primary determinant of stock price movements from one in which expectations of future excess returns are a primary determinant. The data...

This paper investigates the near unit root behavior of interest rate differentials across countries using a symmetric Band–TAR model that allows for a heteroscedastic error process. We find that the time series properties of monthly short-term interest differentials over the period 1974–2005...

Recent studies of the Fisher relation have yielded contradictory conclusions on the importance of taxes in determining the long-run response of nominal interest rates to changes in expected inflation. This study uses data on taxable U.S. treasury and tax exempt municipal bond interest rates to...

In this article we examine the structural stability of predictive regression models of U.S. quarterly aggregate real stock returns over the postwar era. We consider predictive regressions models of S&P 500 and CRSP equal-weighted real stock returns based on eight financial variables that display...

Previous analyses have concluded that expectations of future excess stock returns rather than future real dividend growth or real interest rates are responsible for most of the volatility in stock prices. In this paper, we employ a state-space model to model the dynamics of the log...

We investigate return predictability and the implied intertemporal hedging demands for stocks and bonds in the U.S., Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and U.K. We first estimate predictive regression models for domestic bill, stock, and bond returns in each country, where returns depend...

The Tax Act of 1986 changed the tax treatment of tax-exempt municipal bonds for banks. Since banks were the dominant participant in the municipal bond market until 1986, some believe that this resulted in the breakdown of the long-run equilibrium relationship between municipal and U.S. treasury...

We investigate the dynamic relationship between the U.S. dollar exchange rate and its fundamentals across different exchange rate regimes using data from the late 1800s or early 1900s for six countries. For these countries there is evidence of a long-run relation between the exchange rate and...