This article develops a new approach to study the impact on beliefs and decisions of uncertain probability forecasts by advisors. The core concept of that approach, which builds on the revealed-preference approach favored by economists, is the one of revealed beliefs - the precise probability...

The rise of modern corporations has been accompanied by an expansion of salaried executives who have replaced owner-managers. With this expansion, the new class of managers/executives came to regard themselves as stewards of large and complex corporations, and not principally or exclusively as...

In recent years, the structure of the reinsurance industry has evolved rapidly in response to, among other factors, changes in the nature of risks to be insured (e.g., climate related risks), technological innovations (e.g., Cat models), the globalization of the financial services industry, and...

Ethnography has often been seen as the province of the lone researcher; however, increasingly management scholars are examining global phenomena, necessitating a shift to global team-based ethnography. This shift presents some fundamental methodological challenges, as well as practical issues of...

We address the question as to whether judgmental overconfidence, as assessed by probability miscalibration, is related to positive illusions about the self. We first demonstrate that judgmental overconfidence measured with interval production procedures can be considered a trait, due to...

Most decision-making research in economics focuses on individual decisions. Yet, we know, from psychological research in particular, that individual preferences can be sensitive to social pressures. In this paper, we study the impact of a group environment on individual preferences for risky...

Intuition is a way of processing information that is largely unconscious, associative, fast, and contextually dependent. As part of the growing cognition-oriented research agenda in the entrepreneurship field, the specific cognitive construct of intuition has attracted relatively little...

Two experiments show that violations of expected utility due to ambiguity, found in general decision experiments, also affect belief aggregation. Hence we use modern ambiguity theories to analyze belief aggregation, thus obtaining more refined and empirically more valid results than traditional...