The paper evaluates the 24-month ahead inflation forecasting performance of various indicators of underlying inflation and structural models. The inflation forecast errors resulting from model misspecification are larger than the errors resulting from forecasting of exogenous variables. Also,...

This paper's analysis of growth and inflation dispersions in the euro area reveals several findings. First, these dispersions have declined appreciably since EMU; remaining dispersions are small but persistent, relating mainly to country-specific shocks, not differences in the transmission of...

Driving forces of inflation in the eight new EU member states from Central and Eastern Europe are analyzed using the generalized dynamic-factor model (GDFM) developed by Forni et al. the impact of various macroeconomic variables on inflation is estimated by regressing the GDFM idiosyncratic...

In this paper the concept of total gross seigniorage is used to analyze sources and uses of central bank seigniorage revenues in the Czech Republic during the period 1993-1997. A comprehensive framework for measuring total gross seigniorage and its main components is presented and estimates of...

In this paper we estimate a continuous time macro-econometric model of the Czech economy. The model is built as a system of twelve non-linear differential equations. We illustrate how the model can be used to determine the nominal equilibrium exchange rate of the Czech koruna in a macro-economic...

In this paper we estimate a continuous-time macroeconometric model of the Hungarian economy and compare it with the Czech model described in Stavrev (1998). On the basis of the estimated models we provide simulations and compare the results between the two countries for i) anti-inflationary...

A fear about EMU was that in the absence of national currencies, country-specific shocks would result in greater current account divergences between member states. This paper finds that divergences across euro-area countries are smaller and have not risen relative to those across 13 other...

We analyze the European Central Bank's (ECB's) response to the global financial crisis. Our results suggest that even during the crisis, the core part of ECB's monetary policy transmission-from policy rates to market rates-has continued to operate, but at a decreased efficiency. We also find...

This paper contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analyzing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of structural and empirical models in a consistent framework using...

The paper analyzes the forces driving inflation in the new EU10 member countries. A significant part of headline inflation in these countries is due to common factors, such as price level convergence and EU integration. However, idiosyncratic factors have also played a role in the inflation...