This paper is a theoretical and empirical investigation into the duration of exchange-rate pegs. The theoretical model considers a policy-maker who must trade off the economic costs of real exchange- rate misalignment against the political cost of realignment. The optimal time to spend on a peg...

There has been a significant correlation between United States inward foreign direct investment and the United States real exchange rate since the 1970s. Two alternative reasons for this relationship are that the real exchange rate affects the relative cost of labor and that the real exchange...

This paper provides a framework for evaluating how market participants' beliefs about foreign exchange target zones change as they learn about central bank intervention policy. In order to examine this behavior, we first generalize the standard target zone model to allow for intra-marginal...

The relative wealth hypothesis of Froot and Stein (1991), motivated by the aggregate correlation between real exchange rates and foreign direct investment (FDI) observed in the 1980s, cannot explain one of the major shifts in FDI in the 1990s: the continued decline in Japanese FDI during a...

Standard international economic models with life cycle/permanent income consumption behavior predict that international portfolio diversification leads to high bilateral consumption correlations. Thus international consumption correlations have been empirically estimated as a test of...

The dollar began to slide precipitously against the Deutschemark and the Yen in early 1995. At the beginning of March 1995 the United States, joined by 13 other major industrial countries, intervened to support the dollar.Despite these efforts, the dollar continued to fall againstthe...

The perceptions of a central bank's inflation aversion may reflect institutional structure or, more dynamically, the history of its policy decisions. In this paper, we present a novel empirical framework that uses high frequency data to test for persistent variation in market perceptions of...

This paper presents a new method for empirically testing predictions of various political business cycle theories by using duration analysis. We estimate the effect of presidential elections and their outcomes on the likelihood of the occurrence of business-cycle turning points in the United...

Daily foreign exchange operations by the Federal Reserve are not revealed to the public contemporaneously or, up until recently, even years after the fact. With the recent release of daily intervention data it is now possible to gauge the accuracy of the market's perceptions of the Fed's foreign...

The impermanence of fixed exchange rates has become a stylized fact in international finance. The combination of a view that pegs do not really peg with the quot;fear of floatingquot; view that floats do not really float generates the conclusion that exchange rate regimes are, in practice,...