The combination of substantial terms of trade variability and unstable correlation patterns of trade prices with output and trade volumes has led some to suggest a break in the link between trade volumes and prices. We find that oil accounts for much of the variation in the terms of trade over...

This paper extends the multivariate stock-adjustment model commonly used in empirical studies of portfolio behavior in order to analyze the complete set of flow allocation decisions made by households (including consumption, expenditures on durables and houses, and various financial aggregates)....

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A vector autoregression is used to elicit the empirical facts co ncerning exchange rate movements. The author finds (1) the exchange rate, relati ve price levels, and trade balances are closely related;(2) most other lagged v ariables have no perceptible influence in theexchange rate equation; (3)...

A Dornbusch model with overlapping multi-period wage contracts and rational expectations is specified and estimated with Canadian and U.S. data. Estimated wage-price dynamics imply a typical contract length of about six quarters. Simulations indicate: 1) the exchange rate overshoots following a...

This paper reconsiders McCallum's minimal-state-variable technique for selecting a single, bubble-free solution to a rational expectations model. I argue this technique bears a strong structural similarity to the conventional stability conditions, and when these approaches fail to yield a unique...

These notes review the theory of linear differential and difference equations at the first-year graduate economics student level. The mathematical trick of transforming a system into canonical form, which I take to be diagonal, is applied to continuous and discrete time systems and perfect...