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exchange rate series over an out-of-sample eval-uation period of nearly 12 years. Point as well as density forecasts are … utilised in the evaluation. Non-parametric methods are used in conjunction with simulation techniques to learn about the models …
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We consider time series models in which the conditional mean of the response variable given the past depends on latent covariates. We assume that the covariates can be estimated consistently and use an iterative nonparametric kernel smoothing procedure for estimating the conditional mean...
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evaluation, the nonparametric TVC-HAR model was found to consistently outperform the calibrated TVC-HAR and the simple HAR models …
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