The paper analyses the drivers of sovereign risk for 31 advanced and emerging economies during the European sovereign debt crisis. It shows that a deterioration in countries’ fundamentals and fundamentals contagion – a sharp rise in the sensitivity of financial markets to fundamentals –...

This empirical paper uses a GMM-System panel estimator to assess the vulnerability of inflation in the new EU Member States to country-specific and global factors over the period 1998 to 2007, including an assessment of the more recent 2002 to 2007 period. Using a large dataset of macroeconomic,...

This paper models volatility spillovers from mature to emerging stock markets, tests for changes in the transmission mechanism during turbulences in mature markets, and examines the implications for conditional correlations between mature and emerging market returns. Tri-variate GARCH-BEKK...

This paper provides estimates of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to consumer prices for nine central and eastern European EU Member States. Using a five-variate cointegrated VAR (vector autoregression) for each country and impulse responses derived from the VECM (vector error correction...

This paper examines global (mature market) and regional (emerging market) spillovers in local emerging stock markets. Tri-variate VAR GARCH(1,1)-in-mean models are estimated for 41 emerging market economies (EMEs) in Asia, Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East. The models capture a range of...

Conventional wisdom suggests that the stocks of human capital were one of the few positive legacies from communism. However, if factories under communism were so inefficient, why would the education system not have been? Using the education production function approach and new data on...

In this paper we model the volatility of the spread between the overnight interest rate and the central bank policy rate (the policy spread) for the euro area and the UK during the two main phases of the financial crisis that began in late 2007. During the crisis, the policy spread exhibited...

Using a panel regression approach across 13 developing Asian economies from 1996Q1 to 2019Q4, this paper examines the extent of financial development as a transmission channel for mediating the "allocation puzzle" in capital flows. This puzzle pertains to why capital seems to flow to economies...

Climate change impacts will continue to worsen with rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and global temperatures, underscoring the growing necessity to foresee and comprehend the impact of climate change risks on economic activity. Using quarterly firm-level data of 173 firms from the People's...