The weather forecast says that there is a "30% chance of rain," and we think we understand what it means. This quantitative statement is assumed to be unambiguous and to convey more information than does a qualitative statement like "It might rain tomorrow." Because the forecast is expressed as...

This article reviews several approaches to problem structuring and, in particular, the three-step structuring process for decision analysis proposed by von Winterfeldt and Edwards: (1) identifying the problem; (2) selecting an appropriate analytical approach; (3) developing the a detailed...

In organizational settings, options evaluation requires managers to express value judgments on multiple criteria. This research investigates the influence of decision makers' numeracy (ability to use appropriate numerical principles) and fluency (ability to express oneself in words) on their...

In the 1990s, countries experimented with two models of health care reforms based on choice of provider and insurer. The governments of the UK, Italy, Sweden and New Zealand introduced relatively quickly ‘internal market’ models into their single-payer systems, to transform hierarchies into...

Third party payers for health care, when introducing policies to promote equity, through formulas for resource allocation by capitation, and efficiency, through prospective payment by case-mix, have sought to make adjustments for “unavoidable” hospital costs, which are caused by structural...

A developing emphasis of health care reforms has been creating organisations with responsibilities for strategic commissioning of services for defined populations. Such organisations must set priorities in aiming to meet their populations’ needs subject to a budget constraint. This requires...