Traditional explanations for trade misinvoicing -- high custom duties and weak domestic economies — are less persuasive in a world of high growth emerging markets who have low trade barriers. A 35- country data set over a 26 year span, covering both industrialised and developing...

The paper provides a systematic comparison of the Eurosystem, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. These monetary authorities exhibit somewhat different status and tasks, which reflect different historical conditions and national characteristics. However, widespread changes in central...

Narratives are under-theorised and until recently under-recognised as core variables influencing the speed and direction of changes in expectations and, therefore, as core macroeconomic variables that shape the policy processes of central banks. The author examines below how the thousands of...

In this paper, we develop a gap model based on a reduced form of the New Keynesian Model. The model offers various scenario structure tools which analyze the dynamics of key macro economic variables under diverse shocks and depicts their properties and historical decompositions. This framework...

This study examines central bank independence in developing countries of Latin America and Asia as well as selected developed countries. Many countries around the world, both developed and developing, have accepted the idea of central bank independence over the last several decades, so central...

Like the Bank of Japan (BOJ) a decade ago, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has recently taken a number of unprecedented steps to stabilize its foundering financial system. This paper describes the Fed’s and the BOJ’s responses to their countries’ crises, highlighting the similarities and...

We apply complexity theory to financial markets to show that excess liquidity created by the Eurosystem has led to critical transitions in the configuration of interest rates. Complexity indicators turn out to be useful signals of tipping points and subsequent regime shifts in interest rates. We...