"This paper demonstrates that "commodity currency" exchange rates have remarkably robust power in predicting future global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample. A critical element of our in-sample approach is to allow for structural breaks, endemic to empirical exchange rate...

From the New York Times bestselling author of This Time Is Different, “a fascinating and important book” (Ben Bernanke) about the surprising reasons why paper money lies at the heart of many of the world’s most difficult problemsThe world is drowning in cash—and it’s making us poorer...

Intro -- Contents -- Editorial -- Abstracts -- 1 Assessing Structural VARs -- 2 Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms -- 3 Do Taxes Explain European Employment? Indivisible Labor, Human Capital, Lotteries, and Savings -- 4 Fluctuating...