This paper presents a problem structuring methodology to assess real option decisions in the face of unpredictability. Based on principles of robustness analysis and scenario planning, we demonstrate how decision-aiding can facilitate participation in projects setting and achieve effective...

Real options are a type of investment choice that supports decision-makers in making better strategic management decisions while simultaneously reducing uncertainty in investments. In this paper, we present a new model to help investors handle uncertain investment environments flexibly. First,...

This study incorporates the overextrapolation belief into the classic real options model. Using the stochastic dynamic programming method, we obtain the semiclosed-form solutions for the optimal investment and valuation of real options and the welfare loss owing to overextrapolation. The...