This paper extends the widely used Lee Carter (LC) model (Lee & Carter, 1992) for mortality projection. We suggest a random walk with drift to model the time parameter of the Bayesian extension of the LC model suggested in Czado et al. (2005). In a validation-based examination, the proposed...

This paper brings four new insights into the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) debate. First, we show that a half-life PPP (HL) model is able to forecast real exchange rates better than the random walk (RW) model at both short and long-term horizons. Second, we find that this result holds if the...