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A simple general equilibrium production economy matches moments of the value premium and equity premium. Value firms have low productivity, but will eventually produce high cash flows. The present value of these temporally distant cash flows is especially sensitive to equity premium movements....
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I generalize the long-run risks (LRR) model of Bansal and Yaron (2004) by incorporating recursive smooth ambiguity aversion preferences from Klibanoff et al. (2005, 2009) and time-varying ambiguity. Relative to the Bansal-Yaron model, the generalized LRR model is as tractable but more flexible...
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Any time series can be decomposed into cyclical components fluctuating at different frequencies. Accordingly, in this paper we propose a method to forecast the stock market's equity premium which exploits the frequency relationship between the equity premium and several predictor variables. We...
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models featuring smooth ambiguity preferences. We rely on semi-nonparametric estimation of a flexible auxiliary model in our … structural estimation. Based on the market and aggregate consumption data, our estimation provides statistical support for asset …-varying volatility are preferred to the long-run risk model. We analyze asset pricing implications of the estimated models …
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