We construct a general multi-factor model for estimation and calibration of commodity spot prices and futures valuation. This extends the multi-factor long-short model in Schwartz and Smith (2000) and Yan (2002) in two important aspects: firstly we allow for both the long and short term dynamic...

In this paper we examine the claims reserving problem using Tweedie's compound Poisson model. We develop the maximum likelihood and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation approaches to fit the model and then compare the estimated models under different scenarios. The key point we...

An efficient conditioning technique, the so-called Brownian Bridge simulation, has previously been applied to eliminate pricing bias that arises in applications of the standard discrete-time Monte Carlo method to evaluate options written on the continuous-time extrema of an underlying asset. It...

In this paper, we model dependence between operational risks by allowing risk profiles to evolve stochastically in time and to be dependent. This allows for a flexible correlation structure where the dependence between frequencies of different risk categories and between severities of different...

To quantify an operational risk capital charge under Basel II, many banks adopt a Loss Distribution Approach. Under this approach, quantification of the frequency and severity distributions of operational risk involves the bank's internal data, expert opinions and relevant external data. In this...

To meet the Basel II regulatory requirements for the Advanced Measurement Approaches, the bank's internal model must include the use of internal data, relevant external data, scenario analysis and factors reflecting the business environment and internal control systems. Quantification of...

We re-examine insurance purchases when life insurance and life annuities carry loads. The life cycle literature says that it is optimal to participate in these insurance markets throughout life, even under loads. A life annuity phase backs directly onto a life insurance phase. However, the...

The local volatility model is a well-known extension of the Black-Scholes constant volatility model whereby the volatility is dependent on both time and the underlying asset. This model can be calibrated to provide a perfect fit to a wide range of implied volatility surfaces. The model is easy...

A common feature of retirement income products is that their payouts depend on the lifetime of policyholders. A typical example is a life annuity policy which promises to provide benefits regularly as long as the retiree is alive. Consequently, insurers have to rely on "best estimate" life...

We propose a novel generalization to the Student-t Probabilistic Principal Component methodology which: (1) accounts for an asymmetric distribution of the observation data; (2) is a framework for grouped and generalized multiple-degree-of-freedom structures, which provides a more flexible...