Sornette et al. (1996), Sornette and Johansen (1997), Johansen et al. (2000) and Sornette (2003a) proposed that, prior to crashes, the mean function of a stock index price time series is characterized by a power law decorated with log-periodic oscillations, leading to a critical point that...

Sornette, Johansen, and Bouchaud (1996), Sornette and Johansen (1997), Johansen, Ledoit, and Sornette (2000) and Sornette (2003a) proposed that, prior to crashes, the mean function of a stock index price time series is characterized by a power law decorated with log-periodic oscillations,...

Sornette et al. (1996), Sornette and Johansen (1997), Johansen et al. (2000) and Sornette (2003a) proposed that, prior to crashes, the mean function of a stock index price time series is characterized by a power law decorated with log-periodic oscillations, leading to a critical point that...

Emerging markets often go through periods of financial turbulence and the estimation of market risk measures may be problematic. Online search queries and implied volatility may (or may not) improve the model estimates. In these situations a step-by-step analysis with R and Russian market data...

This paper investigates the intraday volatility pattern of the E-mini SP500, quoted at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, one of the most traded American Stock Index futures. The data set consists of round-the-clock hourly returns. The squared (and absolute) returns are characterized by long...