(including unsecured debt, liquid assets, and illiquid assets) play in default decisions. In sharp contrast to prior studies that … strongest predictor of default. We find that individual unemployment increases the probability of default by 5 - 13 percentage … points, ceteris paribus, compared with the sample average default rate of 3.9 percent. We also find that only 13.9 percent of …

We decompose aggregate consumption by modelling both savers and their links to collateral constrained borrowers through … proportion to the riskiness of assets, the demand for loans, the asset price and the quantity of housing collateral. We show that …