We propose a mixed belief model of self-deception. According to the theory, people distribute belief over two possible causal paths to an action, one where the action is freely chosen and one where it is due to factors outside of conscious control. Self-deceivers take advantage of uncertainty...

How do people assess risks associated with a hedonic but dangerous activity? I conduct a longitudinal field experiment (N=434) exploiting the conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic to investigate whether monetary incentives induce people to motivate their risk assessments. Each participant receives...

Many individuals have empathetic feelings towards animals but frequently consume meat. We investigate this "meat paradox" using insights from the literature on motivated reasoning in moral dilemmata. We develop a model where individuals form self-serving beliefs about the suffering of animals...

Many individuals have empathetic feelings towards animals but frequently consume meat. We investigate this "meat paradox" using insights from the literature on motivated reasoning in moral dilemmata. We develop a model where individuals form self-serving beliefs about the suffering of animals...

Physicians often take shortcuts in diagnostic reasoning by being selective in the information that they gather and follow-up on. Although necessary, these shortcuts are susceptible to cognitive biases and may cause diagnostic errors. The aim of this study is to examine the occurrence of...

This paper presents ideas for improved conditional probability assessment and improved expert systems consultations. It cautions that knowledge engineers may sometimes be imprecise when capturing causal information from experts: their elicitation questions may not distinguish between causal and...

The performance of Internet-based services depends on manyserver-side, client-side, and network related factors. Often, theinteraction among the factors or their effect on service performanceis not known or well-understood. The complexity of these servicesmakes it difficult to develop analytical...