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During the past decades, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) had become one of a prevalent linear models in time series and forecasting. Empirical research advocated that forecasting with non-linear models can be an encouraging alternative to traditional linear models....
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This paper aims to detect the presence of local non-stationarity of nonlinear autoregressive processes with heteroskedastic errors. A Bayesian test is developed to test for the unit root in multi-regime threshold autoregression with heteroskedasticity. To implement a test, a posterior odds...
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The paper develops a new realized matrix-exponential GARCH (MEGARCH) model, which uses the information of returns and … function to develop news impact curves. We consider Bayesian MCMC estimation to allow non-normal posterior distributions. For … three US financial assets, we compare the realized MEGARCH models with existing multivariate GARCH class models. The …
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