relationship is then used to forecast mortality rates, which are shown to be an improvement over forecasts from more traditional …. Past improvements in mortality over many years, and the uncertainty of these improvements, have attracted the attention of … experts, both practitioners and academics. Since aggregate mortality rates reflect underlying trends in causes of death …

We show that by modeling the time series of mortality rate changes rather than mortality rate levels we can better … model human mortality. Leveraging on this, we propose a model that expresses log mortality rate changes as an age group … dependent linear transformation of a mortality index. The mortality index is modeled as a Normal Inverse Gaussian. We …